Monday, November 1, 2010

The Quiet

 As my middle aged body clock sets into an early morning routine, I am able to reflect in the relative quiet of the office.
The morning papers and NPR are of course reporting on the impending doom which is likely to befall the Democrats tomorrow. President Obama is faulted for lackluster and uninspired leadership, and for not connecting with people. I find that political writing typically falls into this post-hoc analysis. See the outcome and then explain it off. If the outcome is somewhat different, then the analysis is of course different. There is of course faulty logic in all of this. The analysis could of course be that people vote their pocketbooks- when the economy does poorly, the voter looks unkindly on incumbents. This cuts both ways politically. After the fall of Lehman in September 2008, when the credit markets froze and the Dow went into a free fall, Obama and the Democrats were assured vistory. Now, when the consequences of the financial crisis works its way through the general economy, with high unemployment and high foreclosure rates, the Republicans are the beneficiaries. The unemployment rate and GDP growth will predict the next president in 2012 (absent any major war or terrorist threat).
Stay tuned.

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